OECD Economic Outlook, May 2018

The global economy is experiencing stronger growth, driven by a rebound in trade, higher investment and buoyant job creation, and supported by very accommodative monetary policy and fiscal easing, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.

The pace of global expansion over the 2018-19 period is expected to hover near 4%, which is close to the long-term average. However, the Outlook also underlines that significant risks posed by trade tensions, financial market vulnerabilities and rising oil prices loom large, and more needs to be done to secure a strong and resilient medium-term improvement in living standards.

Low, albeit gradually rising interest rates coupled with fiscal easing in many countries will continue underpinning the expansion, which will see moderate rises in both wage growth and inflation. Unemployment in the OECD area is expected to drop to the lowest levels since 1980, but more can be done to bring more people into the workforce.

“The economic expansion is set to continue for the coming two years, and the short-term growth outlook is more favourable than it has been for many years,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria. “However, the current recovery is still being supported by very accommodative monetary policy, and increasingly by fiscal easing. This suggests that strong, self-sustaining growth has not yet been attained.”

“Policymakers need to put greater focus on structural policies to boost skills and to improve productivity to achieve strong, sustainable and inclusive growth,” Mr Gurria said.

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